Monday, June 05, 2017

The Construction Immigration Indicator

The data sent by governments is questionable. People from all over the globe can take turns making fun of each other's governments attempts at spinning a positive story. Writers question not just the veracity of the data but the weaponization of data to game markets, game deflators in other measures or simply bamboozle with a headline. People have to look for other indicators and look for numbers and information that does not lie.

Immigration has a little indicator that points to either deportations working or people self-deporting: construction labor. Look around the web and you will see news bits on the rising costs to new home construction. Maybe it will be framed as labor costs surging or a labor shortage. Even Forbes cannot deny it nor the tie to immigration. Self-deporting is at play. The day laborers don't use a fake SSN since it is a cash pay job. Illegals with fake SSNs can work retail, in factories etc, so theya re a bit more hardened unless they are feeling heat for already breaking the law (using fake or stolen SSns is a crime). The articles linked are from all over America so it is not purely one area seeing the drop.

Everyone knows that an illegal immigrant is not going to stick around unless an employer is going to break the law and pay them (or they qualify for government benefits somehow). Housing starts are nowhere near the mid-'00s peak, but construction has recovered. Rising labor costs mean all those subcontractors cannot run to Home Depot and load up a truck worth of day laborers. If those individuals are leaving or being removed at all, then the firms must hire reliably legal workers.

This will hurt builders on their margins, but in reality in is more likely to place a restrictor on how fast they can move units (a good thing to prevent fast forming bubbles). America has subsidized housing for so long that no one even sees the small things we do to encourage the transactions. This will help everyone else. Construction workers who are natives can earn better wages with some power to their wage demands. This then also forces other industries that bid on that same labor pool to have to move their wages north a bit to recruit. Go figure, the working men of America might see a little of the action instead of the developers.

Keep tabs on this indicator and news item if the construction industry does tick up. The new housing starts have been slow to recover but that is a post for Wednesday. If the media will not report directly on something, one must go to indirect sources. While we all want to deport them all, a far smarter move is if illegals deport themselves before we have to physically remove them.


Alexandros HoMegas said...

London calling!

Angry Midwesterner said...

I see a lot more white folk picking up dyi fix me up homes. Some gentrifiers obviously, but some building businesses out of it